China, Taiwan and the Thucydides Trap: War Risks in the Strait and Beyond

Join us for a compelling guest lecture by Prof. Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a distinguished French scholar and leading expert on China’s foreign policy, Taiwan, and international relations in Asia. With a long-standing academic career, including roles at French Center for Scientific Research and Hong Kong Baptist University, Prof. Cabestan has contributed extensively to global understanding of China’s political system, strategic ambitions, and evolving international posture. His latest publication (in French) is a biography of Deng Xiaoping.

He is also the author of Facing China: The Prospect for War and Peace, where he explores the Graham Allison’s concept of “Thucydides’ Trap”, according to which structural power shifts between a rising and an established power increase the risk of conflict. Prof. Cabestan addresses critical questions: Is China’s rise a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between two nations?

While reading the book beforehand is recommended, it is not required to attend.

When? May 6th, 2026.
Where? Room 317 – Collegium Politicum, main building of the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies (University of Warsaw).

Key points during the lecture:
– The geostrategic centrality of Taiwan in the evolving Sino-American rivalry and its role as a ponetial flashpoint for regional confrontation
– Reassesing the Thucydides Trap: a critical analysis of its theoretical foundations and applicability to current US-China power dynamics
– From local problem to global crisis: examining the pathways through which cross-strait tensions could escalate into broader Indo-Pacific instability, including military scenarios, allies’ responses, and strategic miscalculations.

We encourage you to participate!